Artificial intelligence could automate the majority of professional desk jobs within the next 12 to 18 months, the head of AI at Microsoft has said, underscoring mounting concerns about rapid disruption across white-collar industries.
Mustafa Suleyman, Chief Executive of Microsoft AI, told the Financial Times that AI systems are approaching human-level performance in a wide range of professional computer-based tasks, including accounting, legal services, marketing and project management.
“Jobs that involve sitting at a computer are especially vulnerable,” Suleyman said, predicting sweeping automation across sectors traditionally seen as secure from technological displacement.
His remarks echo warnings from prominent figures in the AI industry. Sam Altman of OpenAI and AI researcher Matt Shumer have both cautioned that the pace of AI advancement could prove deeply disruptive. Earlier this year, Dario Amodei of Anthropic warned that AI could eliminate up to half of entry-level white-collar jobs.
Corporate leaders have also voiced similar concerns. Jim Farley, chief executive of Ford Motor Company, said AI could halve white-collar roles in the United States. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Elon Musk of SpaceX suggested that artificial general intelligence could emerge as early as this year.
Limited Impact — For Now
Despite the stark forecasts, real-world impact across professional services remains limited.
A 2025 report by Thomson Reuters found that lawyers, accountants and auditors are using AI primarily for targeted functions such as document review and routine analysis. Productivity gains were described as modest, with no clear evidence of large-scale job displacement.
In some cases, efficiency has declined. A study by nonprofit Model Evaluation and Threat Research reported that software developers took 20% longer to complete certain tasks when relying on AI tools.
Economic gains from AI adoption appear heavily concentrated within the technology sector. Research by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, showed profit margins at major technology firms rising more than 20% in the fourth quarter of 2025. By contrast, the broader Bloomberg 500 Index recorded little change.
Slok also noted that Wall Street expectations for the S&P 500 do not currently reflect significant AI-driven earnings growth outside Big Tech.
While industry leaders warn of sweeping transformation, analysts say the gap between AI capability and measurable economic disruption remains wide — for now.
